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There was a time not all that long ago, back during the days of the “South Least” Division, where a Washington Capitals-Tampa Bay Lightning Eastern Conference final would have sounded like more of a punchline than a prediction. But fast forward a decade-plus and the two squads left standing in the East are former divisional foes from what was once a laughing-stock division.
Since the divisional split, there’s not much history between the two sides, but there are some similarities. Offensively, both are by big-time playmakers and sharpshooting snipers. Defensively, both teams have their deficiencies. In goal, not much has separated the two starters throughout their respective post-season runs. And now leaders of their own divisions — top seeds in the Metropolitan and Atlantic, respectively — whoever wins this battle of the past divisional rivals will win the Eastern Conference crown and earn the chance to hoist the Stanley Cup.
Why The Capitals Win
There aren’t many teams that can keep up with the Lightning shot-for-shot, goal-for-goal, but the Capitals have proven over the course of the post-season that they are most certainly one. Up against a top-10 defensive club in the first round, the Columbus Blue Jackets, Washington dented twine 24 times in six games and then proceeded to beat Pittsburgh Penguins’ two-time Stanley Cup-winning netminder Matt Murray 19 times across a seven-game set, making him look somewhat pedestrian in the process. Alex Ovechkin has been tremendous, Evgeny Kuznetsov has been equally as difficult to stop and if Nicklas Backstrom is healthy enough to suit up, Washington’s top-six has enough weapons to offset the power of Tampa Bay’s top two lines.
The Capitals might also have the edge if the series ends up boiling down to goaltending. While he didn’t start Game 1 of the post-season, Braden Holtby is ensuring his tough regular season will be forgotten. He’s posted eight wins in 10 starts, all the while boasting a .926 save percentage. But playoff Holtby can be a game-changer in every single start. Only one goaltender with more than 50 games played in NHL playoff history, Tim Thomas, has a better career post-season SP than Holtby’s .931 mark.
Why The Lightning Win
If it wasn’t for a lull in the back half of the season, Tampa Bay, who were long seen as the Presidents’ Trophy frontrunners, probably could have sealed the deal and taken the prize as the regular season’s top team. They didn’t, of course, but that they were in the mix speaks to the dominance the Lightning have shown throughout the campaign.
Offensively, Tampa Bay is going to be a handful. As if stopping Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov with any consistency isn’t difficult enough, the play of Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat and J.T. Miller through the first two rounds of the post-season gives reason to believe the entire Lightning top-six will give even the best of defensive units fits. Keep in mind, there’s no mention there of Tyler Johnson or rookie standout Yanni Gourde. That’s how deep the attack is in Tampa Bay.
What stands to put the Lightning over the top and back into the Stanley Cup final for the second time in four years, however, is the defense corps. Bolstered at the deadline with the acquisition of Ryan McDonagh, Tampa Bay now has a top-three on their blueline that’s as rock-solid as any team remaining in the title picture. Norris Trophy finalist Victor Hedman can take over a game at either end of the ice, Anton Stralman continues to provide a steadying force on the blueline and a former weakness for the Lightning now appears to be one of their strengths.TAMPA — The mind tends to race when all we are provided with is one result and 48 hours to chew on it. Man, there was just so much to like about that opening game of the Eastern Conference finals for the Washington Capitals. Replicate the effort and execution that went into that 4-2 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning, and couldn’t this series be over in four games? Okay, five. No more than that. Right?
There’s a trick in how to handle this, and it applies both to the Capitals and their fan base, which can envision welcoming its team home to Capital One Arena on Tuesday night staked to a dominant, 2-0 lead in the series. The trick is this: How can Game 1 be simultaneously meaningful and irrelevant? Because when it comes to the rest of this quest, it must be.
“I can’t imagine we’re going to see the same Tampa team we saw [Friday] for the rest of this series,” veteran forward T.J. Oshie said.
